Is SAF Ready for Takeoff?
Why Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Won’t Take Off Without Structural Support
The push for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is gaining momentum as airlines and policymakers search for ways to reduce aviation’s carbon footprint. A recent analysis by BCG outlines some of the barriers to SAF adoption—high costs, limited production capacity, and the need for policy intervention. However, one critical factor is largely overlooked: the role of airline passengers in driving demand.
This omission is understandable. The flying public has consistently shown extreme price sensitivity when purchasing airline tickets. While corporate sustainability programs and eco-conscious travelers may express interest in greener air travel, most passengers prioritize cost over climate concerns. Studies on consumer behavior in the airline industry demonstrate that even a slight increase in ticket prices can push travelers toward cheaper alternatives.
Carbon offset programs, which allow passengers to pay a small fee to mitigate their flight’s emissions, have seen minimal uptake. If history is any indication, voluntary SAF adoption is unlikely to gain traction without external pressure.
This cost sensitivity presents a fundamental challenge: if passengers won’t pay for SAF, who will? Airlines, already operating on razor-thin margins, have little incentive to voluntarily bear the additional expense. Without regulatory mandates or structural incentives, the industry’s SAF transition will remain slow and fragmented.
The path forward likely involves compromise. If air travel is going to become cleaner, SAF must be scaled significantly. Increased production will help reduce costs, but SAF is unlikely to ever reach price parity with conventional jet fuel under current market conditions. If consumers are unwilling to pay for SAF directly through ticket prices, they will ultimately pay for it indirectly—through taxes used to fund government incentives, subsidies, and regulatory programs that support SAF adoption.
The conversation around SAF must acknowledge this reality. Sustainable aviation will require a collective effort, where costs are distributed in ways that ensure progress without pricing out travelers. Ignoring the role of the flying public in this equation risks overestimating the potential for voluntary adoption and underestimating the need for broader policy intervention.